Irish forecast Q2 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook

Irish forecast Q2 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook: Cornwall Insight’s newest All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 report gives a taster of the insights from its Q2 All-Island Forward Curve report. Changes to the SEM, GB and European Markets during the last quarter have been included into its models, containing delays in commissioning and new capacity plans, to revise the forecast from last quarter.

During the next five years, prices in Ireland are probably going to stay elevated above historical levels as high fossil fuel and carbon prices continue. Nevertheless, growing renewables deployment, particularly onshore and offshore wind, will drive power prices back downwards. To reach the 80% renewables generation target in 2030 the ISEM market will mainly rely on wind capacity, and by 2030 onshore and offshore wind will be 43% of installed capacity. In Ireland, elevated wind speeds and connection to wind ladened Great Britain will make winter and summer prices vary as the effect of higher wind speeds in the winter will offset the higher demand for power.

To balance the rising penetration of renewables more storage and backup thermal plants will be necessary. Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) will become more popular as they are cost effective to set up compared to more efficient Combined Cycle Turbines at lower load factors, and by 2030 they will constitute 10% of installed capacity. Lithium-Ion batteries are another important technology, built to arbitrage low and high prices due to variable renewables output and to supply system services they will quickly rise to become 24% of installed capacity by 2030.

Irish forecast Q2 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook